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Original thinking | 7 March 2025

Monthly news and views covering February

Monthly news and views covering February hero image
Monthly news and views covering February hero image

Chris Robinson

Ian Rees

Nick Kelsall

David Thornton

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For information purposes only. Any views and opinions expressed here are those of the author at the time of writing and can change; they may not represent the views of Premier Miton and should not be taken as statements of fact, nor should they be relied upon for making investment decisions.

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment can go down as well as up which means that you could get back less than you originally invested when you come to sell your investment. The value of your investment might not keep up with any rise in the cost of living.

Investment Advice. Premier Miton is unable to provide investment, tax or financial planning advice. We recommend that you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser.

Please refer to the glossary at the end of the document.

IN BRIEF

  • European defence spending pushes European company shares (equities) higher
  • Trumpenomics delivers the latest round of tariff news
  • US consumer sentiment sends a warning signal

Build from the back

Build from the back is a phrase used in team sport for when it has a solid defence which supports in attack. It’s fair to say the argument for a strong defence has been the talk of February. From the point at which Donald Trump said that Europe will need to arm and defend itself rather than relying on the US, and with a change of stance aimed at Ukraine and ending the war. It’s no surprise that Trump encouraged this considering two thirds of European defence spending ends up going on US made weapons and equipment. It seems to have come at a time when the Republican administration is pushing for spending cuts, some of which are focused on the military.

When it comes to market reaction, it wasn’t Trump’s trade policy that led to global equities falling in value in the month, but more the signs of weaker economic sentiment in the US. Slowing housing demand, higher inflation pressures and weaker consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan survey led to equities in the US falling in value and a follow through to the FTSE All Country World Index, a widely used benchmark that tracks the performance of companies from both developed and emerging markets. The index was down -1.9% in sterling terms, with the US S&P 500 Index down -2.4%.

Two US companies reported fourth quarter earnings that tipped US sentiment. Walmart, the world’s biggest retailer met expectations but guided to lower growth for the remainder of the year. Then there was the big one, Nvidia, the world’s largest Chip maker and benefactor of the Artificial Intelligence revolution. It met expectations but highlighted that the new Blackwell chips were more energy intensive and have lower margins. Nvidia is one of the more expensive US companies and its share price has been on a downward trend since November. Competition is hotting up and maybe for the first time its share price has come under pressure.

Yet it wasn’t all bad news as diversification was rewarded. In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 (an index made up of the 50 largest companies in the eurozone) rallied +2.1% as expectations of fiscal regime change, specifically in Germany, boosted sentiment. Following the German election victory there has been debate about whether the government can alter its ability to borrow. It has a debt brake, which limits borrowing to 0.35% of Gross Domestic Product. Any easing of this would be a significant boost to the country and Europe.

Whilst the European economy still looks weak, signs of further easing of inflation pressures also supported equity markets as it increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

The UK stock market also rose following the news of increased spending on defence and more normalised economic growth. The FTSE 100 Index rallied +2.0% and the FTSE All-Share Index rose +1.3%. UK retail sales improved in the month demonstrating once again the resilience of the UK consumer.

When we look to Asia, signs from China reflect continuation of a turn around. The lunar new year provided an economic boost with signs the consumer is starting to gain confidence. This was also reflected in the services and manufacturing surveys at the end the month that provided evidence of expansion and growing confidence. The FTSE China A50 Index, a stock market index of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which issue A-shares, was up +0.62% for the month as it shrugged off tariff threats. The Chinese have greater average tariffs on the US than those proposed by the US on China.

When we look across to the fixed income market, bonds rallied during the month as yields came down. Government bond yields, which had rallied into the start of the year came down on the back of lower growth prospects. There have been worries of a greater number of bond issuer defaults, with interest rates likely staying higher, signs are that slowing growth in Europe and the UK would allow further rate cuts.

In the UK, bond yields are likely to stay more elevated in the short term due to energy price rises but ultimately should come down throughout the second half of the year. In the US, slowing growth expectations and tightening of government spending have led to the rally in government bonds.

This month was crucial for signs of a differentiated market environment. US equities underperforming other developed markets. Fixed income performing well and a more normalised growth environment. It is a welcome change, and reminds us that the momentum trade, where investors buy stocks which have rising share prices and sell stocks that are decreasing in value, can turn at any point.

Key positioning for the portfolios

  • Tilt to large and mid-sized UK companies
  • Added more to an equally weighted S&P 500 Index tracker fund, which provides equal exposure to all the companies listed on the index.
  • A larger allocation to Government bonds, with specific emphasis on longer dated exposure (i.e. longer timeframe to loan maturity).
  • A larger allocation to higher quality corporate bonds, with shorter maturities. (i.e. shorter timeframe to loan maturity).

The momentum trade can turn at any point - Chris Robinson


Glossary

Bonds (or fixed income)

Types of investments that allow investors to loan money to governments and companies, usually in return for a regular fixed level of interest until the bond’s maturity date, plus the return of the original value of the bond at the maturity date. The price of bonds will vary, and the investment terms of bonds will also vary.

Bond yield

This is calculated by taking the level of interest paid by the bond, divided by the price of the bond, expressed as a percentage. As the price rises, the yield falls and vice versa.

Emerging markets

Countries with less developed financial markets and which are generally considered riskier than investing in developed markets.

FTSE 100 Index

An index that represents the performance of the largest 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).

FTSE All-Share Index

An index that represents the performance of all eligible companies listed on the London Stock Exchange's (LSE) main market,

Government bonds

A type of bond, issued by a government. They pay out a regular fixed amount of interest until the bond’s maturity date, when the issue value of the bond should also be repaid. In the UK they are called gilts and in the US they are referred to as treasuries.

S&P 500 Index

A stock market index, consisting of the 500 largest U.S. public companies.

Yield (also see bond yield)

The dividend per share divided by the stock's or fund’s price per share and expressed as a percentage. The historic yield is the dividend income distributed during the past year and expressed as a percentage of the share price on a particular day

Risks

Typically, there is less risk of losing money over the long-term (which we define as over 5 years) from an investment that is considered low risk, although potential returns may also be lower. Investments considered higher risk typically offer greater opportunities for better long-term returns, though the risk of losing money is also likely to be higher.

The performance information presented in this document relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

Some of the main specific risks that apply to the funds that these portfolios invest in are summarised here. If the funds that are held in the portfolios change, the types of investment risk that the portfolios are exposed to will also change.

Fixed income investments, such as bonds, can be higher risk or lower risk depending on the financial strength of the issuer of the bond, where the bond ranks in the issuer’s structure or the length of time until the bond matures. It is possible that the income due or the repayment value will not be met. They can be particularly affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Equities (company shares) can experience high levels of price fluctuation. Smaller company shares can be riskier than the largest companies, companies in less developed countries (emerging markets) can be risker than those in developed countries and funds focused on a particular country or region can be riskier than funds that are more geographically diverse. These risks can result in bigger movements in the value of the fund. Equities can be affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Derivatives may be used within funds for different reasons, usually to reduce risk, which can be called “hedging”. This can limit gains in certain circumstances as well. Derivatives can also be used to generate income or to increase the risk being taken, , which can have positive or negative outcomes. The derivatives

used can be options or futures which are types of contracts that are dealt on an exchange or negotiated with a third party. More complex derivatives may also be used. Derivatives can also introduce leverage to a fund, which is similar to borrowing money to invest.

Funds may have holdings in investments such as commodities (raw materials), infrastructure and property as well as other areas such as specialist lending and renewable energy. These investments will be indirect, which means accessing these assets by investing in companies, other funds or similar investment vehicles. These investments can also increase risk and experience sharp price movements. Funds focused on specific sectors or industries, such as

property or infrastructure, may carry a higher level of risk and can experience bigger movements in value. Certain investments can be impacted by decisions made by third parties, such as governments or regulators.

There are many other factors that can influence the value of a fund. These include currency movements, changes in the law, regulations or tax, operational systems or third-party failures, or financial market conditions that make it difficult to buy or sell investments for the fund.

*Funds that are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, or that invest in other funds that themselves are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, may have their potential growth or income constrained as a result.

*Applicable for the Premier Miton Blend Portfolios only.

Important Information

This is a marketing communication.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors.

Reference to any investment should not be considered advice or an investment recommendation.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated.

Source for performance data: FE Analytics.

Source: FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2025. “FTSE®” is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Copyright © 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Reproduction of S&P Indices in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P Indices.

This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts, images (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of Premier Fund Managers Limited and/or Premier Portfolio Managers Limited (“Premier Miton”) or any third party involved in providing or compiling any Information (collectively, the “Data Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, manipulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Premier Miton. All rights in the Information are reserved by Premier Miton and/or the Data Providers.

Marketing communication issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

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©Premier Miton Investors. 2025. Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227.  Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.